Truist Economic Roundup

Federal funds rate: The Fed cut rates again, this time by 0.25%. Markets are now roughly split on the probability of another quarter point rate cut at the December meeting.^{Disclosure 8}

Housing: Existing home sales fell 1.0% in September and declined in 28 of the past 34 months.^{Disclosure 9} New home sales swung to a 16-month high, boosted by lower mortgage rates. New housing starts were down 0.5% as multi-family declined 4.5%, but single-family starts were up 2.7%. New building permits fell 3.1% in September as multi-family permits dropped 10.8%, but single-family rose 0.3%.^{Disclosure 10}

Manufacturing: ISM Manufacturing Index contracted for a seventh straight month and has only expanded once in the past 24 months. The prices paid component rose to a 5-month high.^{Disclosure 4}

30-year fixed mortgage rate: Rates have ticked higher despite a small drop in other financing rates. Higher mortgage rates hurt home affordability.^{Disclosure 11}

Inflation: Consumer prices rose by 0.2% in September, slightly better than expected. Producer prices were up 0.2% in September, rising to 2.8% year-over-year.^{Disclosure 2}

Consumer sentiment: The Index of Consumer Sentiment rose to 73.0 in November, a seven-month high. One-year inflation expectations fell to their lowest level since late 2020, and long-term expectations rose back to 3.1%.^{Disclosure 12}

New-vehicle affordability: New-vehicle affordability was unchanged in September as various factors offset any potential benefits for consumers. The number of median weeks of income needed to purchase the average new vehicle remained steady at 36.2 weeks following a slight upward revision in August.^{Disclosure 14}

Business inventories: Up for the fifth straight month in August, the longest streak since 2022^{Disclosure 13}

Back to office: Rose to 52.0, which is about half of pre-pandemic levels (indexed to 100). The trend has improved, a modest positive for overall growth.^{Disclosure 14}