Note: This is an abbreviation edition covering the final days of 2025 and start of the new year. The next edition will be published on Friday, January 9, 2026.
Trend watch
Air passenger travel in the United States ended 2025 at 905.7 million passengers, which was a new all-time high and 0.2% above 2024 (the prior record) and up 6.8% above 2019.
On slide 3 (available to clients in full version), we marked the indicators impacted by the federal government shutdown in red and changed the trend to “Ø” once a data release was missed since a stale trend can’t be relied upon. It’s been whittled down to just a handful
Bottom line
The U.S. economy remains resilient. However, economic data remains sloppy due to the government shutdown, which has caused distortions and delays. Be prepared that we probably won't get a clean read on the economy until perhaps mid-February. Nonetheless, we expect an uptick in U.S. growth to 2.3% in 2026 thanks to four primary drivers – tax incentives for consumers and businesses, marginally lower borrowing costs thanks to Federal Reserve easing, steadier trade policy and tariffs, and continued investment in AI and technology spending.
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